Hey 2025! The Thirties Called. They Want Their Global Chaos Back

(that's the 1930s, not the 2030s)

There are so many contemporary analogs to the tumultuous, chaotic and deadly inter-war period of the 1930s that you have to be blind not to see them. As the American writer Mark Twain wryly noted, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”

Rhyming Couplets

• The Russia-Ukraine War (1930s’ Spanish Civil War)

• Putin’s Russia in a full war economy that he cannot afford to back down from (1930s’ Hitler)

• The rest of Europe half in denial and half try to frantically arm (1930s’ UK, France, Czechoslovakia, Poland)

• China demanding the Pacific acquiesce to its expansionism and takeover of Taiwan (1930s’ Japan)

• Trump threatening hostile takeovers of Greenland, Panama and Canada (1930s’ Hitler, Stalin, Mussolini, Hirohito)

• Ongoing wars in Africa – Sudan, the Congo, the Sahel, Somalia, Ethiopia, Nigeria; Cameroon, Central African Republic, Mozambique -- on the brink of war – South Sudan, Kenya, Egypt, Chad, Eritrea, Rwanda, Mauritania, Senegal (1930s’ Italy in Libya and Ethiopia, anti-colonial resistance in Egypt, Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia -- all while being spurred on by interference from outside nations --Russia, China, France, Türkiye, the Gulf Nations -- (1930s’ Britain, France, Belgium, Portugal, Spain, Italy)

• A brewing economic crisis threatened by tariffs, high inflation and interest rates, unemployment, cutting of social safety nets (1930s Smoot Hawley tariffs, the Great Depression, mass unemployment)

• George Floyd, Black Lives Matter, anti-Semitism and Islam (1930s’ Holocaust, Holodomir, religious and racial tension, Japan’s Unit 731)

• The rise of aggressive, authoritarian great powers such as Russia, China, the USA, Türkiye, (1930s’ Germany, USSR, Italy, Japan)

• Mass re-armament, military spending, changing political-military alliances and conscription

Lessons from the 1930s

The 1930s were a tumultuous period characterized by economic hardship, political radicalization, collapsing international order, and societal anxiety. It was a decade brimming with contradictions: desperate for hope, yet pulled into darkness. Europe, Asia, North America, Africa ... each had its own version of the storm.

Put together, they set the stage for the outbreak of World War II and the deaths of hundreds of millions of people. It was a decade of profound crisis, radical ideological shifts, and an ominous march towards global conflict.

The most important question today is whether we have actually learned anything from it, or are we just content to close our eyes and pretend it isn’t happening. As the Spanish-American philosopher George Santayana warned, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

“The lesson of 1933 is: you get out sooner rather than later. My colleagues and friends, they were walking around and saying, ‘We have checks and balances. So let’s inhale, checks and balances, exhale, checks and balances.’ I thought, my God, we’re like people on the Titanic saying, ‘Our ship can’t sink. We’ve got the best ship. We’ve got the strongest ship. We’ve got the biggest ship.’ And what you know as a historian is that there is no such thing as a ship that can’t sink. So much had been dismantled [by the Trump administration] … the guardrails, or the checks and balances, had systematically been taken down. The supreme court’s ruling on immunity; the failure to hold Trump accountable for anything, including the fact that he incited, you know, a violent insurrection on the Capitol, that he encouraged a mob that threatened to hang his vice-president, that he called up the Georgia secretary of state and asked him to find votes. I felt like we were in much more dangerous territory.” -- Marci Shore, Fascism Expert

The Main Themes of the 1930s

Global Economic Turmoil

• The 1929 stock market crash

• Bank failures

• Rising interest rates

• Collapse of consumer spending

• Unsustainable state and personal debt, including war reparations from WWI

• Unequal wealth distribution, the age of the capitalist Robber Barons

• Massive unemployment

• Few if any social safety nets and a disillusionment with capitalism and democracy, leading to a search for quick, easy fixes and scapegoats from populist and authoritarian leaders

• The Dust Bowl, agricultural collapse

• Protectionism: Deutschland über alles, America First, etc

• Collapse of world trade; the Smoot-Hawley tariffs leading to international trade wars and global trade reduction. Over 1,000 economists signed a petition urging US President Hoover to veto it.

"Smoot-Hawley placed enormous pressure on the central banking system and capital structure. In addition it caused the dramatic loss of export markets and declining farm income (due to foreign retaliation), rendering much agricultural capital useless. This was responsible for widespread agricultural bank failures, which then led to contagion effects. If the great monetary contraction was an important factor in the severity of the Great Depression, then the Smoot-Hawley tariff must be held responsible in large part." Foundation for Economic Education (FEE.org)

We don’t have to look far to find modern analogs for each of these. The stock markets are extremely volatile, yo-yoing between fear and irrational exuberance. Undeniable climate change is threatening food production and industry. Great powers are abandoning both democracy and long-standing alliances in favour of protectionism and alliances with other authoritarian regimes. American tariffs threaten to upend world trade. Economies are further threatened by mass layoffs of state employees, forced removal of low-paid immigrant labour pools, and the removal of social safety nets. High inflation and interest rates continuing onward from the COVID crises and exacerbated by tariff policies threaten consumer spending and jobs. Tech billionaires such as Musk, Bezos, Zuckerberg, and Thiel are every bit as predatory and socially parasitical as the Robber Barons Rockefeller, Carnegie, Vanderbilt, and Morgan were. State labour camps in China and Russia mirror the Soviet gulags and Nazi concentration camps, with other states looking on enviously and beginning to mimic them

"These tariffs are every bit as high as the notorious Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930. The negative reaction of financial markets says it all. Recession probabilities have gone up significantly, most of all for the United States but (also) globally. I fear deep damage, since the presumption that the US is a reliable trade partner, recently disrupted, will not be easily repaired." — Barry Eichengreen, Economic Historian at the University of California, Berkeley

"I don't know why Trump didn't learn the lesson of the Smoot-Hawley tariff. Trump's tariffs could be even more detrimental than the Smoot-Hawley Tariff because trade plays a significantly larger role in the global economy today compared to nearly a century ago [they’re] the "biggest policy mistake in 95 years." — Jeremy Siegel, Professor Emeritus of Finance at the Wharton School

The Rise of Authoritarianism and Fascism

• Fascist regimes gained momentum: Hitler's Nazi Germany Mussolini's Italy solidified, and Spain's Franco all led totalitarian dictatorships.

• The USSR implemented its own totalitarian regime under the banner of communism, offering an alternative to a failed capitalist model

• Political repression and propaganda became state tools

• Social, religious and racial intolerance

• Territorial expansionism by German, Italy, Japan and the USSR

Fast forward to 2025. For the first time in over 20 years, the number of autocracies (91) has surpassed the number of democracies (88) . Nearly three out of four people in the world (72%) now live in autocracies. Almost 40% of the world's population lives in fully authoritarian state. More importantly, a large number of these are great powers (Russia, China, Türkiye, the Gulf States, the USA) who feel little compunction in threatening the rest of the world. Russia threatens Ukraine and Europe; China does the same to Taiwan, Burma, Nepal, Tibet, and the Uyghurs; Türkiye to the Kurds; the Arab Gulf States to Africa; the US to Greenland, Panama and Canada. Anti-woke backlashes threaten racial equality; women’s freedom; non-binary gender lifestyles; and specific nationalities and religions.

"We are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be,” — Kevin Roberts, President of the Heritage Foundation, a right-wing think tank and influential contributor to the Trump adminstration’s Project 2025 blueprint

American Isolationism

Responding to the trauma of World War I and domestic economic hardship, the United States adopted a policy of isolationism, actively avoiding entanglement in European and Asian conflicts.

Today, the Trump administration repeats the clarion call of “America First,” abandoning long-term alliances with nations of similar values in favour of transactional agreements with other authoritarian states. The world seems primed for a period of three competing spheres (Europe, Asia and the Americas) dominated by three great powers, with Africa once again left over in a scramble for whoever can get what they want by force.

“An American president used the slogan “America First,” which is the name of a committee that sought to prevent the United States from opposing Nazi Germany in the 1930s. Steve Bannon promised policies that would be “as exciting as the 1930s.” When exactly was the “again” in the slogan “Make America great again”? It is, sadly, the same “again” that we find in “Never again.” ― Timothy Snyder, On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century

Breakdown of International Diplomacy and Appeasement

Failure of the League of Nations: Established after WWI to prevent future conflicts, the League proved largely ineffective in the face of aggression by fascist states. Its inability to enforce resolutions, coupled with American isolationism, meant that acts like Japan's invasion of Manchuria (1931) and Italy's invasion of Ethiopia (1935) went largely unchecked.

Appeasement: Western democracies, particularly Britain and France, adopted a policy of appeasement towards aggressive powers like Nazi Germany, hoping to avoid war by conceding to their demands. It failed miserably. As every schoolchild knows, acquiescing to a bully only emboldens him to demand more.

“After the Second World War, Europeans, Americans, and others created myths of righteous resistance to Hitler. In the 1930s, however, the dominant attitudes had been accommodation and admiration. By 1940 most Europeans had made their peace with the seemingly irresistible power of Nazi Germany. Influential Americans such as Charles Lindbergh opposed war with the Nazis under the slogan “America First.” ― Timothy Snyder, On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century

Remilitarization and Rearmament: Germany, under Hitler, openly defied the Treaty of Versailles by rearming and remilitarizing, which further destabilized the international order.

Aggression and Expansionism: The decade witnessed a series of increasingly aggressive acts by Germany, Italy, and Japan, including territorial annexations and invasions, that chipped away at international peace and paved the way for WWII.

Spanish Civil War (1936-1939): This conflict served as a proxy war for the ideological struggle between fascism and democracy/communism, allowing Germany and Italy to test new military tactics and equipment.

In 2025, the UN is seen as ineffectual and bloated. There is a massive rush towards military spending by almost every nation on earth, illustrated by NATO demands to increase military spending to 5% from 2% of GDP. Israel spends 9%, Saudi Arabia 7.3%, Russia 7.1%, Poland 4.2%. The US spends $997 billion/year on the military, China $450 billion, Russia $149 billion.

The Russia-Ukraine war is today’s comparable for the Spanish Civil War, with systems and ideologies using it as a proxy to spread their own systems and testing grounds for new methods of warfare for an upcoming expected showdown.

Israel is attacking almost all of its closest neighbours one by one without compunction. Over 20% of African nations are actively at war, with many others on the way. 23% of Asian nations are actively at war or engaged in significant armed conflicts.

Escalating Political Polarization

Sharp ideological divides between fascists, communists, and liberals.

• Increasing fragmentation and instability in democracies like France and Britain.

• Street violence, political assassinations, and coups became symbols of the era’s volatility.

While today’s ideological divide retains remnants of the liberal-democracy/authoritarian split (the EU/NATO + Australia/New Zealand + Japan/South Korea + Canada) versus Russia, China, the US, + Türkiye) it is more reminiscent of the appalling Hitler/Stalin pact that simply agrees to let each other carve up weaker states with impunity with no regard to ideology or values.

Social and Cultural Responses

• Intellectuals debated democracy vs. authoritarianism, and many were drawn into activism.

• Writers, artists, and philosophers wrestled with the meaning of crisis: existentialism gained traction.

The rise of modernist literature, surrealism, and anti-fascist art responded to political chaos, finding expression in literature and art, often with bleak and pessimistic tones. Issues such as class division, sexual repression, and the search for meaning amid social upheaval became prominent themes.

• Racial and ethnic discrimination intensified

• Indigenous and minority groups worldwide faced renewed exclusion amid nationalist fervor.

• Mass migrations and refugee crises became increasingly common.

“When fascists or Nazis or communists did well in elections in the 1930s or ’40s, what followed was some combination of spectacle, repression, and salami tactic: slicing off layers of opposition one by one. Most people were distracted, some were imprisoned, and others were outmatched.” ― Timothy Snyder, On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century

Today, all of these themes have been revived and intensified. Anti-state private militias calling for the collapse of society abound, there are mass migrations across Africa, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and large-scale deportations taking place in the US. Progress for social justice and equality for people of colour, women, certain religions, and non-binary gender choices has deteriorated significantly. Violence against individuals and groups that resist this trend is both increasingly common, accepted and encourage. Masked ICE agents without ID forcibly abduct random people without probable cause and warrant, incarcerating or deporting them without due process.

Technological and Military Innovation

The interwar years saw rapid advancements in military technology -- particularly in mechanisation, aviation, and modernized tactics — setting the stage for a new era of warfare during World War II.

Today, we have a renewed nuclear race, cyber- and electronic warfare, the widespread use of fifth columns particularly through the use of bots and social media, and cheap and innovative methods of drone, electronic and laser warfare.

1930 and 2030: Rhyming Couplets

In essence, the 1930s were a crucible forged by economic depression, the rise of dangerous ideologies, and the erosion of international cooperation, ultimately setting the stage for the most devastating conflict in human history.

We are well on course to exceed that in the next few years.

Only this time, it’s nuclear.