None-ty Deals in Ninety Days!
(well, three "concepts" of deals)
Back on April 2, 2025, a day that will threaten to match FDR’s famous quote, “will go down in infamy,” US President Trump declared “Liberation Day,” freeing the greatest nation in the history of the world from the yoke of completely unfair trade conditions imposed on it from every other nation in the world, including some inhabited only by penguins.
The tariffs were scheduled to go into effect on April 9th, but the nation was still so hungover and sore in their nether regions from their celebrations that they got, as Trump put it, the “yips,” the bond and stock markets crashed “like no one has ever seen before,” and he graciously postponed the tariffs for three more months, giving the world time to negotiate “deals.”
We were assured everyone from the Dalai Lama to Penguin #3 were lining up at the White House gates to get in on the action. “Ninety deals in ninety days!” we were promised.
Which expired yesterday.
With no deals (okay, three: one with Vietnam and two “concept’s of deals” with the UK and China).
It turns out that with the nation celebrating so jubilantly in the streets -- the nation’s birth rate, along with alcohol consumption –- tripling in a single day, he somehow mistook “reciprocal tariffs” with “trade deficits” and the world was too confused to know how to react. We can’t really blame them. Or him. We, too, were so taken aback by our liberation, chugging American beer through funnels and “boinking” on the back greens of Trump gold courses, that while we heard him brag that he would have “90 deals in 90 days,” we just weren’t listening close enough.
He had really said “none-ty deals in 90 days.”
With all none of them in his back pocket (yes, yes, I know, three “concepts” of deals), good-hearted Don gave everyone another chance and sent out badly typed form letters to the recalcitrant nations, graciously now allowing them until Aug. 1st to respond.
Shhh! The Secret is that there is No Deadline
The reason there are no deals is that there is no deadline. The entire scheme is simply a grift to give TACO Donny what he wants most: his name constantly in the news. It’s a vanity project for the ad nauseam running Trump Show, which needs a new cliffhanger every week or we’ll simply stop watching.
A source deeply embedded in the Trump administration’s ongoing trade talks accused the Republican president of waging a tariff war for TV ratings.
The Stock Market Figured this out Long Ago (Trump Always Chickens Out)
Immediately after Trump's announcement, stock futures plummeted. S&P 500 futures lost 3.9%, Nasdaq-100 futures dropped 4.7%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 2.7%.
The next day, the sell-off intensified. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1,600 points (entering bear market territory within two days), the S&P 500 fell 4.84%, and the Dow dropped 1,679 points (3.98%). The Russell 2000, representing smaller companies, led losses by falling 6.59%.
On April 4, China's retaliatory tariffs deepened the crisis. The Dow Jones fell another 2,231 points (5.5%), the S&P 500 lost 5.97%, and the Nasdaq Composite continued its decline.
Within just two days (April 3-4), the Dow Jones index lost over 4,000 points (9.48%), the S&P 500 lost 10%, and the Nasdaq lost 11%. Over $6.6 trillion in market value was lost globally, marking the largest two-day loss in history.
Chicago Board Options Exchange's VIX benchmark, often called "Wall Street's fear gauge," spiked 15 points to close at 45.31 points, its highest close since the 2020 stock market crash.
Oil prices fell over 7%, reflecting fears of a significant demand hit due to global growth and recession concerns.
Even worse was the Bond Market’s Reaction. In times of fear and volatility, bonds are considered a "flight to safety. Bond yields should have fallen as investors bought safe-haven assets. Instead, they rose sharply. 10-year US Treasury bonds climbed from just over 4% to just under 4.5%. Bond prices were falling, indicating investor alarm over inflation and re-evaluation of risk appetite. Foreign investors sold $70 billion worth of U.S. equities and Treasury and Agency debt.
As no trade deals have resulted and Trump repeatedly issues less-and-less convincing threats and continually pushing back the implementation dates, markets have recovered, and even risen from their Liberation Day cliff falls. The reason is simple. No one believes Trump is going to seriously follow through on them, giving him the moniker “TACO Don.” TACO, of course, stands for Trump Always Chickens Out.
The World Figured it out Even Earlier
Countries know this, too. Why negotiate a trade deal if TACO Don may well just rip up it halfway through anyway, like the USMCA with Mexica and Canada --- the deal Trump himself negotiated in his first term, claiming it was “the largest, most significant, modern, and balanced trade agreement in history.”
The USMCA was due to run through to 2036, with a review in 2026. Trump capriciously tore it up years early just to make himself feel relevant.
"The USMCA is the fairest, most balanced, and beneficial trade agreement we have ever signed into law. It's the best agreement we've ever made..." (Remarks by President Trump at a USMCA Celebration with American Workers, January 30, 2020)
"One of the most important deals, and the most important trade deal we've ever made by far." (Remarks by President Trump on the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, October 1, 2018)
"We just ended a nightmare known as NAFTA... And we now have a brand-new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. It's a whole different ballgame, and it's going to be great for this plant. It's going to be incredible for Michigan and for every place else in our country." (Remarks by President Trump at a USMCA Celebration with American Workers, January 30, 2020)
"It is a tremendous victory for our manufacturers and autoworkers, meaning more cars and trucks will be produced in the United States. The USMCA is also a historic breakthrough for American agriculture." (Statement on the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, July 1, 2020)
Even Trump’s Own White House Admits it Privately
Wendy Cutler, vice president at the nonprofit Asia Society Policy Institute and a former negotiator with the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office during the Obama administration, said she expects a flurry of deals in the coming days, but cautioned, ‘Eyes are wide open about these deals, and that the deals themselves do not necessarily mean you're going to be shielded from tariffs. You could just do something that irks Trump and he can go ahead and threaten another tariff.”
The Whole Thing is Illegal Anyway
The US Congress, not the President is the only body empowered in the US Constitution to negotiate trade deals. Trump got around this by manufacturing “emergencies” that exploited other legislation. His tariffs against Mexico and Canada were “justified” by Trump invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to declare a national emergency related to fentanyl trafficking and illegal immigration.
An increasingly discredited Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick explicitly stated that the tariffs were part of a "drug war" aimed at saving American lives, rather than just a trade war. An emergency? Between 2022 and 2024 fiscal years, only 59 pounds of fentanyl were seized at the Northern border by U.S. Customs and Border Patrol.
Trump justifies his tariffs on specific trade sectors like steel, automobiles, aluminum and copper on the pretext of a national security emergency, invoking Section 232, of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. This law grants the President authority to impose import restrictions if the Commerce Department determines that imports of a specific product "threaten to impair the national security of the United States."
As dubious as either of these emergencies” are, what are we to think of Trump’s most recent threat to impose trade tariffs of 50% on Brazil for conducing a trial of former President’s Bolsonaro coup attempt to stay in power [me thinks the “lady” doth protest too much?]
And what about Trump’s other new threat to put tariffs on any nation that conducts trade with the BRICS coalition? (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia) and their “partner countries?” (Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan, Vietnam)
The only emergency here is that Trump has blown 250 years of diplomatic, economic, social and military capital in return for six months of personal headlines.
Six Months in, the Trump Show is in Danger of not Being Renewed
Tariffs (Quinnipiac University National Poll, April 9, 2025
Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Economy (Short-Term): A vast majority of voters (72%) believed the tariffs would hurt the U.S. economy in the short-term. Only 22% thought the tariffs would help in the short-term.
Impact on U.S. Economy (Long-Term): A smaller majority (53%) thought the tariffs would hurt the U.S. economy in the long-term. 41% thought the tariffs would help in the long-term.
Trump's Handling of Trade: 39% of voters approved of the way Donald Trump is handling trade, while 55% disapproved.
(Quinnipiac University National Poll, June 11 to June 26, 2025)
The Economy (General Handling):
Trump's Handling of the Economy (June 11): 40% approved, 56% disapproved.
Trump's Handling of the Economy (June 26): 41% approved, 57% disapproved.
Handling of the Russia-Ukraine War:
June 11 Poll: Only 34% approved of the way Donald Trump is handling the Russia-Ukraine war, while 57% disapproved. This was noted by Quinnipiac as the lowest approval among the list of issues they surveyed.
U.S. Joining Israel in Military Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Sites: (Poll conducted June 22-24, after strikes)
Voters opposed the U.S. joining Israel in military strikes on Iran's nuclear sites by 51% to 42% support. Half of voters (50%) thought the strikes would make Americans less safe, while 42% thought they would make Americans safer. Nearly 8 in 10 voters (78%) were either very concerned (44%) or somewhat concerned (34%) about the U.S. getting dragged into war with Iran.
Military Involvement if Russia Invades a NATO Country: (June 11 Poll)
Voters 62% to 29% think American troops should get involved if Russia invades a NATO country.
Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill"
June 11 Poll: 53% opposed the bill, while 27% supported it, with 20% not offering an opinion.
June 26 Poll: Opposition increased slightly, with 55% opposing the bill, 29% supporting it, and 16% not offering an opinion.
Immigration
June 11 Poll: 43% approved of Trump's handling of immigration issues, while 54% disapproved.
June 26 Poll: Approval dropped slightly to 41%, while 57% disapproved.
Trump's Handling of Deportations:
June 11 Poll: 40% approved of Trump's handling of deportations, while 56% disapproved.
June 26 Poll: Approval dropped slightly to 39%, while 59% disapproved.
ICE Approval:
June 26 Poll: Voters 56% to 39% disapprove of the way U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is doing its job.
DOGE Cuts (Department of Government Efficiency) June 11, 2025)
Rating of Elon Musk and DOGE's Work:
38% say their work is either excellent (20%) or good (18%).
57% say their work is either not so good (12%) or poor (45%).
[Director, The Trump Show: “That’s a wrap. Fade to black.”]