What is it with War and Authoritarian States?
The vast majority of current wars have been initiated by authoritarian regimes or non-state actors supported by them. Democracies are primarily involved as defenders and responders, not initiators
“All those who seek to destroy the liberties of a democratic nation ought to know that war is the surest and the shortest means to accomplish it.” -- Alexis de Tocqueville
The vast majority of major ongoing wars as of July 2025 were initiated by authoritarian regimes or non-state actors supported by them. Democracies are primarily involved as defenders or responders rather than initiators of these conflicts.
This is not a new phenomenon. Most of the great, large-scale wars of history -- Alexander the Great’s Persian and Indian campaigns, Ghenghis Khan’s Mongol Invasions, Napoleon’s Revolutionary and European wars, Kaiser Wilhelm’s Great War, Hitler’s Liebensraum, Japan’s The Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere, the USSR’s subjugation of Eastern and Central Europe behind an Iron Curtain – not only followed but defined the pattern.
Why? Because tyranny is hard to sustain without the constant fear and influx of capital, labour and resources needed to sustain it. Democracy — the non-Imperial and colonial kinds — not so much.
“Totalitarian rulers organize mass support primarily through the manipulation of isolation and fear, often enhanced by the threat or reality of war.” -- Hannah Arendt
War? What is it Good For?
As of July 2025, the world is experiencing multiple active wars and conflicts. Below is a list of the major ongoing wars, categorized by whether they were initiated by authoritarian regimes or democracies, based on the nature of the governments involved at the start of each conflict.
It's important to note that attributing a war’s causes can be complex, as many conflicts have multiple layers of causality. This categorization focuses on the primary state actor widely considered to have initiated the current phase of significant armed conflict. The vast majority began through actions by authoritarian governments, military juntas or non-democratic authorities.
“Of all the enemies to public liberty, war is, perhaps, the most to be dreaded... No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare.” -- James Madison
Current Conflicts
Russia-Ukraine War
Russia, an authoritarian state, invaded the Crimean part of Ukraine in 2014, followed by a full-scale invasion in 2022. It is estimated that the war has so far resulted in over 35,000 Ukrainian civilian casualties, hundreds of thousand more military ones, and over a million Russian military casualties.
“A state of war only serves as an excuse for domestic tyranny.”
— Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
Israel-Gaza War
Hamas (an authoritarian, non-state actor) initiated attacks on Israel in Oct 2023; Israel (a democracy back-sliding into autocracy) responded. Iran, an authoritarian state, backs Hamas.
Over 1,200 Israeli civilians were killed in the initial Hamas attack, with several hundred Israeli soldiers killed in subsequent fighting. There are an estimated 37,000 Palestinian civilians killed in the fighting, with tens of thousands more wounded. Multiples more have been displaced and are in severe states of food insecurity.
“War does not determine who is right — only who is left. But for tyrants, it is often a way to keep power, not to pursue justice.” -- Bertrand Russell
Israel – Iran War
This has been on ongoing, long-simmering conflict often fought by proxies. The latest escalation by triggered by Israeli (with significant American support) strikes on Iran, but initiated by Iran’s covert strikes on Israel. The war is currently in a ceasefire.
Iranian casualties are estimated to be around 5,000, many of them significant military, political and scientific leaders. There has been significant damage to infrastructure and defence capabilities. Israel’s casualties are about 3,550, with only around 30 deaths, and very limited affect on military capability.
Yemeni Civil War
The war began with Houthi (a tribal, authoritarian movement) against the central government in 2014. Since then, foreign actors such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have unsuccessfully intervened to try and restore the government or carve out a separate state in the south. The Houthis are supplied by Iran and often act as a proxy agent for Iran, launching attacks against Israel and Western shipping through the Suez Canal.
“Naturally the common people don't want war... But after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy... all you have to do is tell them they are being attacked... and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism.” -- Hermann Göring
There are an estimated 150,000 direct combat deaths, with another 380,000 indirect ones from famine and disease. Yemen, one of the world’s poorest countries, is at continued severe food and disease risk.
Sudan Civil War
The current phase, which erupted in April 2023, is a power struggle between two rival military factions (Sudanese Armed Forces - SAF and Rapid Support Forces - RSF), both representing elements of the previous authoritarian regime and vying for control with support from outside authoritarian Middle Eastern countries. There are estimated to be over 15,000 deaths and over 8 million displaced civilians.
Myanmar Civil War
Following a 2021 military coup, the authoritarian junta initiated a violent crackdown on pro-democracy movements, leading to a widespread civil war against ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy forces. There are thought to have been over 50,000 deaths, with over 2 million displaced people.
“The war function has grasped us so far; like a habit, like a religion. And for the autocrat, it is the surest tool to unify a nation under fear.” -- William James
China has recently moved to help prop up the military regime in an attempt to preserve its overland internal supply lines open in anticipation of a possible Pacific naval war with Taiwan, Japan, the US, and South Korea.
The Sahel Insurgency
The Sahel is a semiarid region of western and north-central Africa forms a transitional zone between the arid Sahara desert to the north and the belt of humid savannas to the south.
“Nothing is so irresistible as the tyrannical power commanding in the name of the people, because while wielding the moral power which belongs to the will of the greater number, it acts at the same time with the quickness and persistence of a single man.” — Alexis de Tocqueville
This complex regional crisis involves multiple militant and jihadist groups (e.g., JNIM, ISGS, Boko Haram) and various governments such as Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad and Niger. The latter three have recently undergone military coups, transitioning away from democratic aspirations or structures. The initial triggers are often related to state weakness, ethnic grievances, and the spread of extremist ideologies, rather than a clear state-on-state initiation.
Death totals are thought to exceed 30,000, over 20,000 in Burkina Faso alone since 2015.
Libyan Civil War
This multi-sided civil conflict emerged from the 2011 uprising inspired by the Arab Spring against an authoritarian regime and supported by NATO forces, but has since involved various factions and external interventions from almost all sides of the geopolitical spectrum. The country remains seriously split between Eastern and Western governments with secessionist forces in the south.
Estimating casualty figures for the Libyan Civil Wars is exceptionally difficult due to the fragmented nature of the conflicts, the lack of consistent and independent reporting, and the propaganda from various warring factions.
“The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. The essential act of war is destruction, not of human lives, but of the products of human labor.” -- George Orwell
Estimates for deaths in 2011 vary significantly, ranging from around 15,000 to 30,000.
The ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project), which tracks political violence, reported around 21,201 total fatalities and 4,773 civilian deaths from direct targeting between 2011-2017.
A study published in PubMed Central (2019) examining data from 2012-2017 identified 16,126 deaths and 42,633 injuries with complete information. This study is based on reported data from various Libyan sources.
Congolese Conflicts (DR Congo)
The Democratic Republic of Congo faces ongoing violence from dozens of armed groups (e.g., M23, ADF, LRA, various local militias). While the DRC has democratic institutions, the government often struggles with governance, corruption, and controlling its vast territory. The M23 rebellion, in particular, is significantly backed by Rwanda, an authoritarian state.
DR Congo-Rwanda Conflict: This is often a proxy conflict, with Rwanda (an authoritarian state) accused of backing the M23 rebels in eastern DRC, leading to direct and indirect military engagements.
Ethiopian Civil Conflict
While currently not a full-blown war, there are significant and increasing tensions and mobilizations between Ethiopia and Eritrea (an authoritarian state), with warnings of imminent war, often stemming from border disputes and Ethiopia's quest for Red Sea access. Eritrea's highly authoritarian government plays a significant role in this dynamic.
While a peace deal was signed for the Tigray region, ongoing tensions and sporadic fighting in other regions (Amhara, Oromia) are rooted in deep-seated ethnic and political grievances within a state that has historically struggled with democratic governance and has seen authoritarian tendencies. The government's actions against regional armed groups are a key aspect.
Summary
The vast majority of major ongoing wars in 2025 were initiated by authoritarian regimes or non-state actors supported by them. Democracies are primarily involved as defenders or responders rather than initiators of these conflicts.
Democracies, historically, do initiate wars, but usually by states with colonial or imperialist histories, which itself could be defined as being autocratic abroad while maintaining some democratic traits at home.
Some notable examples include:
The Peloponnesian War (431–404 BCE), initiate by an increasingly imperial, democratic Athens against Sparta and its allies.
The War of 1812 was initiated by a democratic USA against the UK, motivated by maritime rights, expansionism (desire for Canada), and national pride.
“A despotic government always seeks to make war, because it is by war that it can cloak its oppression.” Thomas Paine
The Mexican-American War (1846–1848) was initiated by a democratic USA, stemming from its expansionist “Manifest Destiny” policy and annexation of Texas; it is widely seen as an aggressive war for territory.
The Spanish-American War (1898) was driven by American imperial ambitions in Cuba and the Philippines, spurred by sensationalist press and economic interests.
The Second Boer War (1899–1902) stemmed from a democratic Britain’s imperial expansion in southern Africa Boer republics (Transvaal, Orange Free State), despite significant criticism at home. The war prompted strong jingoist support by the UK’s democratic colonies.
Other contemporary wars initiated by democratic states include the Vietnam War, the Kosovo War (NATO against Yugoslavia, 1999) and Iraq War (2003).
“War stirs in men’s hearts the mud of their worst instincts. It puts a premium on violence, nourishes hatred, and gives free rein to cupidity. It crushes the weak, exalts the unworthy, and bolsters tyranny.” — Charles De Gaulle
War? What is it good for?
(War, huh) Yeah
(What is it good for?) Absolutely nothin'
Uh-huh, uh-huh
(War, huh) Yeah
(What is it good for?) Absolutely nothin'
Say it again, y'all
(War, huh) Huh, lookout
(What is it good for?) Absolutely nothin'
Listen to me, aww!
-- Norman Whitfield and Barrett Strong
Well, something, actually. Autocracy. Not much else.